Hugh, as you know I'd normally go for blue.
In a nutshell, blue has greater colour difference from most of the likely foreground objects one is likely to need a key from. And fg/bg colour difference is what one is really after.
Blue might be worse in some situations:
- blue fg objects (duh)
- dark/unlit fg where there IS no fg colour, and one is therefore totally reliant on the bg colour for an edge
IMHO, the fact that the blue colour channel (on film and HD) tends to be the noisiest one is a red herring, for the reasons outlined above - an opacity matte is based on colour DIFFERENCE, not just the backing colour.
Green has its own problems:
- less colour difference, not that far from skin, sand etc. Green spill is therefore quite hard to get rid of without messing with the colour saturation of the fg.
- green can end up horribly overexposed in sunlight exterior situations
It's rare to see a really great blue OR greenscreen element nowadays. If a studio bluescreen is done really well (great backing material, heavy blue filtration on the screen lights, totally even exposure) then you can get a perfect key with one button push.
Preferred keyer: Keylight.